NFL Week 3 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars’ Outlooks

A lot can be learned from players’ stats over the first two weeks of the 2023 NFL season. Some have greatly outperformed projections, while plenty of stars have performed just as well as they were expected to heading into the year.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa passed for 715 yards over the first two weeks, which wasn’t a surprise. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the league’s receiving leader at 309 yards, and that’s certainly not a shock.

Several rookies have already emerged as potential breakout starts. Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards (180), while Los Angeles Rams wideout Puka Nacua is second in receiving yards (266).

Which players are poised for big showings in Week 3? Let’s take a look at some player prop bets that could be smart to bet on during Sunday’s action. (All lines/odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.)

It’s become quite clear how the Washington Commanders will be utilizing their running backs this season. Brian Robinson Jr. is the clear-cut lead RB, while Antonio Gibson is the backup, as those roles have been evident over the first two games.

Robinson has 37 carries for 146 yards, while Gibson has only five carries for 18 yards. Plus, Gibson has only four catches, while Robinson has three. So this isn’t exactly a multi-RB system as some had expected Washington to utilize.

Not only have the Commanders given Robinson the ball a lot, but they’re counting on him to get into the end zone. He had a receiving touchdown in the season-opening win over the Arizona Cardinals, and then he notched a pair of rushing scores in a Week 2 victory against the Denver Broncos.

Although Washington is unlikely to beat the Buffalo Bills, the team will likely put the ball in Robinson’s hands quite often. So count on him to punch in a touchdown at some point, even if it ends up being when the game is already out of hand.

The Vikings took Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft hoping that he would be a great No. 2 wide receiver alongside Justin Jefferson, their star playmaker. And two games into his pro career, Addison is meeting those expectations.

Addison scored a touchdown in each of Minnesota’s first two contests, and the 21-year-old has seven catches for 133 yards. He’s had at least 61 in each of those games.

So it’s quite reasonable to expect Addison getting at least 51 yards on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s a battle of 0-2 teams with strong offenses with each badly in need of a win, so there should be a lot of big numbers put up across the board.

Unless the Vikings pull ahead and cruise to a big win, Addison should get plenty of targets, more than enough for him to hit this number. It seems unlikely this game will be a blowout, so expect him to come through in a big way.

The Jacksonville Jaguars should beat the Houston Texans on Sunday. However, with the Jags the clear better team that will also be playing at home, it may not be too competitive of an AFC South matchup.

Because of that, Trevor Lawrence may not be airing it out too much. The 23-year-old quarterback has passed for 457 yards through two games and hasn’t thrown for more than 241. So it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll again be at 245 or lower against Houston.

Lawrence didn’t put up big numbers in his previous meeting with the Texans. In Week 17 of last season, he threw for only 152 yards in the Jaguars’ 31-3 win.

This game could go in a similar fashion. Plus, Houston’s secondary has some solid players that could force Jacksonville to mostly keep the ball on the ground. That will lead to Lawrence not having his biggest game through the air.

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