Conselho de Sobreviventes da NFL: Semana 3 – BettingPros

Those in survivor pools likely sweated out their Week 2 picks more than they did in Week 1 (unless you picked the Patriots). The Texans needed to stop a late two-point conversion to beat the Jaguars. The Ravens had a much tougher time than expected in beating the Cardinals. However, many contestants are feeling a sense of invincibility given that it is looking more and more likely the Dolphins could go 0-16. Therefore, there is a growing sense that if one just picks against the Dolphins each week, they will never fail. Tread lightly with this theory, since there have been just two teams in NFL history (2008 Lions, 2017 Browns) to ever go 0-16. And of course, since you cannot pick the same team more than once you would not have the opportunity to pick the Patriots in their rematch against Miami if you already used them this week. 

Although the four biggest money line favorites from a week ago all won, favorites overall went just 10-6 SU in Week 2. Among the losers were the Panthers (-320), Steelers (-178), Titans (-166), Chargers (-132), Eagles (-116), and Bengals (-110). Last week’s tip (Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool) of the Bears (-114) won in dramatic fashion on a late-second field goal.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and Contrarian Plays to Beat a Large Pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.

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Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 3 (odds courtesy ofFanDuel).

Safest Picks

New England Patriots(-3500), Dallas Cowboys(-2400)
It seems obvious to put the Patriots and Cowboys in the safest picks category, as they play the Jets and Dolphins respectively. Since this is a survivor pool article, they still must be mentioned. If the name of the game is “survive and advance”, you will assuredly advance if you pick these two teams this week. There are going to be strategists that will save New England for later in the year. However, this looks like an optimal week to use Dallas. If you want to be brave and use the Cowboys when they play on the road at the Jets (10/13) and Giants (11/4), then go right ahead. However, I prefer to pick teams playing at home. A glance at the Cowboys future home schedule (vs Packers, Eagles, Vikings, Bills, Rams, Redskins) assures me that this week against the Dolphins is the best week to use them. 

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Green Bay Packers(-390), Minnesota Vikings(-360), San Francisco 49ers(-310), Philadelphia Eagles(-270), Buffalo Bills(-245)
Green Bay is in the middle of a three-game homestand as they welcome the Denver Broncos to Lambeau Field. Denver is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Chicago in what was a revenge game for their head coach Vic Fangio. Can Fangio rally the 0-2 Broncos enough to challenge the Packers on the road? AlthoughJoe Flaccohas had a poor start to the season, the Broncos still bring a top-notch defense to this contest. I’d prefer to let the Packers continue to acclimate to head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense before I use them in a survivor pool.

In somewhat of a gambling quirk, the Vikings are cheaper to bet on the money line than Green Bay, yet the spread of their game is higher. Though I don’t think the Vikings will lose this game, I don’t like what I have seen out ofKirk Cousinsthus far to trust them completely. They face an Oakland team that shut Kansas City out for three of four quarters last week. The Vikings have a run-first identity, and Oakland ranks fifth in rushing yards per game allowed (63) so far this season. I will wait for a better spot with Minnesota.

One would have never thought the 49ers would be in play to use in a survivor pool this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However,Ben Roethlisbergeris undergoing season-ending elbow surgery and they don’t look nearly as fearsome as they once did. Backup quarterbackMason Rudolphtakes over the reins after he relieved Roethlisberger in the second quarter last week. Rudolph threw for 112 yards and two touchdowns and looked like he had a good feel for the offense overall. As dominant as the 49ers have looked so far, I give pause in this matchup as there is too much unfamiliarity with Rudolph on the other sideline.

The Philadelphia Eagles look to have a winnable matchup against the Detroit Lions this week. I am staying away from this game for two reasons. The Lions showed signs of life in beating a very good Chargers team last week. In addition, the Eagles are too banged up to trust at the moment.DeSean Jackson,Alshon Jeffery, andTim JerniganandDallas Goedertare all dealing with injuries.

The Buffalo Bills are the kings of New York after beating the Jets and Giants in consecutive weeks. Buffalo now heads home for their home-opener against the 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals. On paper, this feels like a mismatch. However, I will admit that Vegas has me a little scared on this one. It was somewhat surprising to see them listed as less than a touchdown favorite. This makes me think that oddsmakers know something that I don’t. I am happy to pass on the Bills this week and wait until the Dolphins make their visit to Orchard Park.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-280)
If saving better teams for later in the season is your strategy, then Tampa Bay looks like a tasty pick. The Buccaneers may not inspire more confidence in bettors than this week against the Giants. Tampa is coming off a more rest having played last Thursday. The Bucs got their running game going last week asPeyton Barberrushed for 82 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps the best sign is that turnover-proneJameis Winstontook care of the football.

Meanwhile, the Giants looked non-competitive again in a loss to the Bills.Eli Manninghas officially been benched in favor ofDaniel Jones. As good as Jones looked in the preseason, he is not ready to win on the road against NFL starters in his debut. Tampa Bay is a fine pick if you are competing in a large pool while holding onto the league’s best teams as future options.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.