NFL Week 6 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars’ Outlooks
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So much of knowing what to look for week to week in NFL player prop bets is knowing what injuries or other personnel changes have shifted rosters around the league.
For instance, if a team has lost its top wideout, you should absolutely look at the prop bets featuring its second-most-productive pass-catcher.
If a quarterback is set to go up against a leaky pass defense, you should be sure to take a look at his passing-related props.
Taking a look at injury reports as well as matchups ahead of Week 6, we’ve identified three prop bets that, from where we sit, feel like easy money. Here’s a breakdown of everything you need to know about them.
Raheem Mostert over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane’s rise has been one of the best storylines of the NFL season so far. After falling to the third round of the NFL draft this spring, he assembled 460 yards and a whopping five touchdowns on the ground in four games, adding another two receiving touchdowns.
But Achane suffered a knee injury against the New York Giants in Week 5, and the Dolphins have placed him on injured reserve, hoping he’ll return later this season. In the meantime, they’ll be looking to Raheem Mostert to step up in the backfield.
Thanks to Achane’s breakout performance this season, the Dolphins haven’t needed Mostert to be a lead back. But he’s still put together a nice year so far, with 314 rushing yards on 58 attempts and seven touchdowns on the ground.
Mostert has already topped 70.5 rushing yards twice this season, even with Achane in the picture, and the Dolphins offense ranks No. 1 in the league in multiple categories, including rushing yards per game (185.8). Moreover, Miami’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers, have given up the third-most rushing yards per game this season (128) making this prop something of a no-brainer.
Matthew Stafford over 275.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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The Los Angeles Rams offense in 2023 tends to become pass-happy, which is just fine for Matthew Stafford, who has always had one of the best arms in the league.
This season, Stafford has topped 300 yards in a game three times and is averaging 290.2 over five weeks, which ranks fourth in the league.
Meanwhile, the 1-4 Arizona Cardinals, who meet the 2-3 Rams this week, have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, ranking 26th in passing yards allowed per game (251.4) and 25th in yards per attempt (7.2). Stafford is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt.
The Rams also aren’t hurting for weapons in the passing game. Star wideout Cooper Kupp is back in action, but in his absence, rookie Puka Nacua established himself as one of the most promising young receivers in the game, racking up 572 yards on the season already.
Given that Stafford and the Rams offense already tend to air it out, matched up against a weak Cardinals secondary, it’s difficult to see how this prop doesn’t pan out.
T.J. Hockenson over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Through five games, Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson leads the team in receiving yards (571) and receptions (36), as well as yards per reception (15.9). Unfortunately, the Vikings will be without their star wideout for as many as six weeks after he suffered a hamstring injury against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The second-most productive pass-catcher on the Vikings this season has been tight end T.J. Hockenson, with 30 receptions for 254 yards (8.5 average). And he’s looking to be Kirk Cousins’ best option moving forward, even with wideouts Jordan Addison and K. J. Osborn in the mix. (Neither has seen as many targets as Hockenson.)
In Week 6, the Vikings face a Chicago Bears team that has allowed the second-most yards per game in the league (286), behind only the Los Angeles Chargers. And tight ends have fared well against the Bears this season; they have allowed the 10th-most yards (56.4) and fourth-most catches (6.8) per game to the position group.
Expect Hockenson to have what will be his third game of the season with more than 55 receiving yards.
Find all the props for this week’s games at DraftKings.
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