Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings: Matchups and Projections for Players We Love

The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions kicked off the 2023 NFL season Thursday night.

If your lineup had exposure to that tilt, you might have some catching up to do this weekend. No one had a monster outing, and only David Montgomery (74 rushing yards, one touchdown), Amon-Ra St. Brown (six receptions for 71 yards and a score) and Detroit’s defense (20 points allowed and a pick six) perhaps exceeded expectations.

With 15 games still on the docket, though, there is ample opportunity to access huge stat lines. But who’s most likely to provide them? We’ll examine that inquiry while laying out our top-10 rankings at the four marquee positions, then spotlighting a player with a favorable matchup and projecting their output.

1. Lamar Jackson, BAL (vs. HOU)

2. Josh Allen, BUF (at NYJ)

3. Jalen Hurts, PHI (at NE)

4. Joe Burrow, CIN (at CLE)

5. Justin Fields, CHI (vs. GB)

6. Justin Herbert, LAC (vs. MIA)

7. Trevor Lawrence, JAX (at IND)

8. Geno Smith, SEA (vs. LAR)

9. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (at LAC)

10. Dak Prescott, DAL (at NYG)

Best Matchup: Trevor Lawrence at Indianapolis Colts

Lawrence turned the 2022 campaign into his personal breakout, following a rocky rookie effort with a scintillating sophomore season. He upped his completion percentage nearly seven points (59.6 to 66.3) and more than tripled his interceptions (eight) with touchdowns (25) after having more of the former (17) than the latter (12) as a freshman.

And that might have only been the beginning.

With Calvin Ridley and Tank Bigsby joining a strong set of playmakers, Lawrence will get a ton of mileage out of simply feeding the many mouths around him. Tack on the impact he makes as a rusher, and he could skyrocket his fantasy stock once again. He should get started on the right foot, as the Colts, who allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, per Yahoo, seem ill-equipped to handle Lawrence.

Projected stats: 261 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 27 rushing yards

1. Christian McCaffrey, SF (at PIT)

2. Austin Ekeler, LAC (vs. MIA)

3. Bijan Robinson, ATL (vs. CAR)

4. Tony Pollard, DAL (at NYG)

5. Saquon Barkley, NYG (vs. DAL)

6. Derrick Henry, TEN (at NO)

7. Nick Chubb, CLE (vs. CIN)

8. Josh Jacobs, LV (at DEN)

9. Aaron Jones, GB (at CHI)

10. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX (at IND)

Best Matchup: Josh Jacobs at Denver Broncos

While the Raiders’ front office can’t quite figure out how to value Jacobs, the coaching staff clearly can’t get enough of him. Last season, he handled a career-high (and league-leading) 393 touches, which he used to tally 2,053 scrimmage yards and a dozen scores.

His future beyond this season is still up in the air, but maybe the contract stalemate that kept him away from the club for training camp and the preseason could prove beneficial. If nothing else, he has taken far fewer hits than most and might be extra fresh because of that.

Even if he’s a bit rusty, the stat sheet may not notice. Historically, he has shredded this Denver defense, posting 721 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, plus 15 catches for another 158 yards in seven outings—all Raiders’ wins.

Projected stats: 103 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards, two touchdowns

1. Justin Jefferson, MIN (vs. TB)

2. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (at CLE)

3. Tyreek Hill, MIA (at LAC)

4. Davante Adams, LV (at DEN)

5. CeeDee Lamb, DAL (at NYG)

6. Stefon Diggs, BUF (at NYJ)

7. DK Metcalf, SEA (vs. LAR)

8. Garrett Wilson, NYJ (vs. BUF)

9. A.J. Brown, PHI (at NE)

10. Chris Olave, NO (vs. TEN)

Best Matchup: Chris Olave vs. Tennessee Titans

Olave has the type of talent in stardom feels inevitable. He almost ascended to that level as a rookie, clearing the 1,000-yard mark despite only starting nine of the 15 games he played. He still wound up with 119 targets, which yielded 72 receptions for 1,042 yards and a touchdown.

Then, he was catching passes from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. Now, the Saints have Derek Carr, a four-time Pro Bowler, under center. He has thrown more than 20 touchdowns each of the past four seasons, averaging 4,120.8 yards per year over this stretch.

Olave not only gets a quarterback upgrade, he also opens against a Titans defense that allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers last season. His star should rise immediately.

Projected stats: Eight receptions, 107 yards, one touchdown

1. Mark Andrews, BAL (vs. HOU)

2. T.J. Hockenson, MIN (vs. TB)

3. Darren Waller, NYG (vs. DAL)

4. George Kittle, SF (at PIT)

5. Kyle Pitts, ATL (vs. CAR)

6. Dallas Goedert, PHI (at NE)

7. Evan Engram, JAX (at IND)

8. Tyler Higbee, LAR (at SEA)

9. David Njoku, CLE (vs. CIN)

10. Pat Frieirmuth, PIT (vs. SF)

Best Matchup: Mark Andrews vs. Houston Texans

Andrews is arguably the best fantasy tight end not named Travis Kelce. This is Andrews’ chance to prove he is closer to Kelce’s tier than he is to all of the tight ends behind them.

Baltimore upgraded its receiver room this offseason—drafting Zay Flowers and signing Odell Beckham Jr.—but Andrews could still be the top target for Lamar Jackson. In the past two seasons alone, Andrews has racked up 266 targets and turned them into 180 receptions for 2,208 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Against a young Texans team that could have trouble keeping its offense on the field, Andrews could have a field day.

Projected stats: Seven receptions, 81 yards, one touchdown