It was a Sunday full of blowouts in Week 4 of the NFL season, but a day that ended up hinging for sportsbooks on the result of Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets.
The Jets played Kansas City tough, but ended up falling 23-2src as 8.5-point underdogs, leading to a winning day for sportsbooks.
Here’s a recap of Week 4 in the NFL:
Week 4 NFL betting picture
Favorites: 9-5-1 against the spread
Bills dominate Dolphins in AFC showdown
By far the most anticipated matchup of Sunday’s games was between the Bills (-3) and Dolphins. The game flew OVER the total of 52.5 in the third quarter, and the Bills dominated in a 48-2src win.
Miami 2.5 was the fourth-most bet side at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the third-most popular side at BetMGM; however, the majority of the dollars were on the Bills at both BetMGM and DraftKings.
“The Bills game was a small winner for us,” Craig Mucklow, director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook said. “The public was on the OVER, while sharps were on the UNDER and the Bills.”
Other sportsbooks also enjoyed the Bills’ domination.
“Bills winning was a great result for us,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail trading at Twin Spires said via text.
The mix of several favorites losing outright (Bengals, Saints, Steelers) in the early window also helped sportsbooks.
“The Commanders winning would’ve killed all the teasers and money-parlays,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars, said on Sunday night. “It was a good game for us at the time, but then not as much in the long run. The Tampa game, Titans game and Texans were big.”
Chiefs beat Jets, but New York gets the cover
The story was the same at every sportsbook: The public was lining up to bet Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against the New York Jets. The line opened Chiefs -9, but respected bettors wagered on the Jets, bringing the line down to even as low as -7.5 at some books.
Over 9src percent of the bets and 8src percent of the total dollars wagered were on the Chiefs to cover at multiple sportsbooks, and that didn’t include all of the teasers and ML parlays tied into Kansas City.
I think it’s safe to say the public likes the Chiefs tonight:
96% of bets, 84% of 💰 on Chiefs -8.5 at @CaesarsSports
95% of bets, 92% of 💵 on Chiefs -7.5 at @FanaticsBook
91% of bets, 87% of 💸 on Chiefs -9 at @DKSportsbook
9src% bets, 87% of 💲on Chiefs -8.5 at @BetMGM
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 1, 2src23
“Early games were pretty good, however, having all three favorites cover in the afternoon was not,” Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Station Casinos said via text on Sunday before the game. “We’re huge J-E-T-S fans tonight.”
Caesars Sportsbook took a $35src,srcsrcsrc wager on the Jets 8.5 right before kickoff from a bettor in Nevada, in addition to a $24src,556 wager on the Jets 8.5 from one bettor in Michigan. Even with those wagers, 91 percent of bets and 84 percent of the total dollars wagered at kickoff at Caesars were on Kansas City to cover.
“Sharps were on the Jets and big straight bets were on the Jets” Pullen said. “But it’s not going to make a dent in the overall liability on the Chiefs.”
“We need the Jets big time,” Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas said via text.
Mahomes ended up sliding at the 2-yard line on third down to run out the clock, instead of scoring a potential spread-covering touchdown, leading to heartbreak for bettors and rejoicing for books.
“Teasers and parlays cashed, but a big win for us,” Lucas said. “[It was] the biggest decision I’ve seen in three years.”
For some books, it was a great day even before Sunday night.
“So far it’s been the best Sunday of the season for us,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey said via text. “Would have been even better if the Eagles lost outright, but I can’t complain. Decent size decision looming in [Sunday Night Football].”
Notable bets that won
$35src,srcsrcsrc on Jets 8.5 at Caesars
$24src,556 on Jets 8.5 at Caesars
$173,5srcsrc on Steelers-Texans UNDER 42
$11src,srcsrcsrc on Ravens-Browns UNDER 4src.5
Notable bets that lost
$24src,srcsrcsrc on Saints -3 at Caesars
$22src,srcsrcsrc on Raiders 5 at Caesars
$173,5srcsrc on Bengals-Titans OVER 41 at DraftKings
$11src,srcsrcsrc on Bucs-Saints OVER 4src
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