Best Lions-Packers prop bets today: Rookie TE sleepers Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave among top Week 4 TNF parlay picks
The Lions and Packers will meet again in prime time in Green Bay on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime) to open NFL Week 3. As always, TNF brings us several interesting player props to consider on SuperDraft.
It’s easy to get in on the action. If you successfully hit on two player props, you get 3x return. That exponentially grows all the way to 100x return for parlaying eight correct picks together at much longer odds. In other words, if you put down a $20 entry fee on our four props below and they all hit, you get paid $200.
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Whether you’re going with a two-legged parlay or stringing together three-plus props, here are our four favorite SuperDraft plays for the even Week 4 matchup between Detroit and Green Bay. If you’re looking for more action, you could enter Sunday’s Progressive Jackpot contest and hit it big like a SuperDraft user did last week:
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Best Lions-Packers prop bets: SuperDraft player prop picks for Week 4 TNF
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions — OVER 4.5 receptions
LaPorta has broken the rookie tight end convention by being great right away. He’s caught 18-of-22 targets in his first three NFL games for 186 yards, including a long TD last week. The Packers gave up five catches to Cole Kmet in the opener and six combined to Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith in Week 2. Last week, the Saints had four between Juwan Johnson, Jimmy Graham, and Taysom Hill.
The Packers are OK in tight end coverage, but they are also shakier vs. the run. LaPorta is dominating TE snaps, getting 74 percent last week with his 11 targets vs. the Falcons. It’s also looking good for top corner Jaire Alexander to return from his back injury, which can limit Josh Reynold again to funnel more targets inside to LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
TNF INJURY UPDATES: Aaron Jones | Christian Watson | David Montgomery
2. Luke Musgrave, TE, Packers — OVER 37.5 receiving yards
The Lions scored a long TD with LaPorta, but they should have also given one up to Pitts last week had Falcons QB Desmond Ridder been on point. Musgrave, like LaPorta, is a very athletic tight end with even better field-stretching ability. Musgrave also should have scored a long TD in Week 3 but Love failed to connect with him.
The Lions also struggled giving a few TE big plays vs. the Chiefs (without Travis Kelce) and the Seahawks’ three-man committee, who combined for a ridiculous nine catches for 176 yards against him. Musgrave should clear this easily, and it’s correlated well to the next recommendation.
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3. Jayden Reed, WR, Packers — UNDER 36.5 receiving yards
The Lions also have another standout rookie not named LaPorta or Jahmyr Gibbs. Safety/nickel back Brian Branch is all over the field making plays, and he looks on his way to succeeding Jets corner Sauce Gardner as D-ROY. It hasn’t mattered that C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral) is hurt.
Branch can erase the slot and may make Jordan Love shy away from testing him inside, especially if Christian Watson (hamstring) can return to help Romeo Doubs on the outside. Reed, a rookie himself, won’t break free from that matchup to do much.
4. Jared Goff, QB, Lions — UNDER 256.5 passing yards
The Packers have seen the Bears, Falcons, and Saints and not allowed 250 yards passing in a game yet, but many will be quick to point out that the Lions have a much better passing offense.
Goff threw for a lot (323 yards) trailing against the Seahawks in Week 2, an overtime loss, but in Weeks 1 and 3, he had 22 completions each for 253 and 243 yards, respectively. Goff had 224 and 137, respectively, vs. the Packers in 2022.
The Lions should have plenty of success running the ball and their defense can keep this a contained scoring game. There’s optimism that David Montgomery (thigh) will return to boost Gibbs in the rushing attack. The Packers are tied for the No.27 run defense, giving up an average of 136.7 yards per game. That’s not good news up front vs. the Lions, who should rumble to around that number, thus limiting Goff’s need to throw for a lot of yards.
