Biggest Boom-or-Bust Players in the 2024 NFL Draft

Attempting to nail when Michael Penix Jr. will hear his name called in April seems like an impossible task.

The quarterback’s fundamental arm talent opens eyes, as does his rapid improvement at Washington following his injury-riddled career at Indiana.

And while his success during the last two campaigns (67 TDs, 19 INTs) looks great on a box score, peeling back the layers of Penix’s game shows massive room for improvement.

He has reminded many of Detroit Lions backup and former Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker’s evaluation last spring. Similar to Penix, whose career at Indiana showcased a player who looked nearly unplayable at times, Hooker’s career at Virginia Tech (before transferring) left much to be desired.

For Hooker, things were simple pre-snap in a vertical, one-read offense during his time in the SEC.

Wideouts Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt made things extremely easy as separators, and Hooker was asked to drop throws into a vast bucket on the opposite side of where the safety rotated to.

Penix faced a similar situation in an offense headlined by projected top-10 pick Rome Odunze and a pair of middle-round selections in Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.

It’s not to say Penix won’t be able to produce in an offense lacking legitimate weapons on the perimeter, but it’s questionable if he can sit in the pocket and rip throws to condensed windows on the far hash or step up while a defensive tackle is bearing down on his ribs.

A lackluster performance at the Senior Bowl in a neutral environment with pass-catchers he’d never worked with before raised concerns, also.

For all quarterbacks, a variety of outliers can present a foundation for success. For Penix, however, failing to fine-tune his mechanics (all-arm mentality and sloppy footwork within the pocket) or landing in an offense that lacks weapons and has a league-average front five could present trouble for a team that asks him to start early on.

On the flip side, a team that deploys an offensive architecture that prioritizes vertical shots and limited reads post-snap could bring the best out of Penix as one of the draft’s premier vertical passers.