Picaretas do jogo da semana 5: Rams ou 'Hawks hoje à noite? – NFL.com

04/10/2019 Marcelo 0 comentários

Translating…

As we head into the second quarter of the 2019 regular season, I’m trying out something a little different with this week’s formatting. For each game, I aim to supply three informative nuggets to whet your appetite for another weekend of football consumption. Enjoy!

Gregg Rosenthal went 7-8 on hispredictions for Week 4, bringing his season record to 37-25-1. How will he fare in Week 5? His picks are below.

SUNDAY, OCT. 6

SNEAKY GOOD GAME OF THE WEEK:Carolina Panthers23,Jacksonville Jaguars19

1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)

1)Ron Rivera is at it again. ThePanthers‘ transition to a 3-4 defense has helped them withstand theseason-ending injurysuffered byKawann Shortand allowed Carolina to keepShaq Thompsonon the field for all but a few snaps of his breakout season. Thethird-ranked pass defenseplays terrific assignment football, making thisGardner Minshew‘s toughest opponent yet.

2)Kyle Allenpasses the eye test, even in a gameagainst the Texanswhen he fumbled three times. You can’t coach accuracy, and he makes all the throws, including some gems to the outside.

3)It’s hard to believe how much Allen and Minshew appear to belong. If they had the draft pedigree ofSam DarnoldorBaker Mayfield, they’d be talked up as the next big thing rather than passing curiosities. While they have long seasons ahead, they outplayed plenty of veteran NFL starters in September.

New England Patriots30,Washington Redskins10

1 p.m. ET (CBS) | FedExField (Landover, Md.)

1)Ben Watson’s return from suspension should help aPatriotsoffense that needs more receiving options.Josh Gordon is hurtand clearly not in sync withTom Brady, whileJulian Edelmanis not 100 percent. Brady’s strugglesin Buffalowere more about the greatBillssecondary and thePatriots‘ limitations than Brady’s pass protection.

2)To compare pass rushes, thePatriotshave 21 sacks and 83 total disruptions, according to PFF, with role players likeLawrence GuyandJohn Simonproviding great value. TheRedskinshave four sacks and 51 total disruptions with first-round pickMontez Sweatand even perennial Pro BowlerRyan Kerriganstruggling to make an impact.

3)It looks like theRedskinsmight get wide receiverTerry McLaurinback from injury, but lose tight endVernon Davis.Colt McCoy, if he passes medical benchmarks, appears to be Jay Gruden’s preferred option to start. This is Gruden’s version of going out his way.

Buffalo Bills20,Tennessee Titans17

1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)

1)TheBills‘Micah HydeandJordan Poyerare the best safety tandem no one talks about, signed in free agency on the same day back in March of 2017 for a combined nine years and $43.5 million. Look for them to limit theTitans‘ passing attack from making big plays.

2)Don’t assume startingMatt Barkley— ifJosh Allendoesn’t return from his concussion — would end theBills‘ chances to win. Barkley made good decisions and moved the ball better thanJosh AllenorTom Bradylast Sunday, even if he has a backup’s arm. There’s a real chance theBills‘ passing game could stay on schedule betterwithoutAllen.

3)Titansleft tackleTaylor Lewan’s return from suspensionis massive for aTitansoffense looking for consistency. Last week’s 24-point first half effort in Atlanta — followed by a goose egg after halftime — was their first quarter of the season in a nutshell. I trust theBills‘ defense more.

Baltimore Ravens27,Pittsburgh Steelers20

1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Heinz Field (Pittsburgh)

1)RavenssafetiesEarl ThomasandTony Jeffersontake big risks, but lack the same athleticism they possessed earlier in their respective careers. That’s led to some coverage busts and a secondary that looks slow with 33-year-oldBrandon Carrstarting at cornerback and 31-year-oldJimmy Smithout with injury.

2)TheSteelers‘ defensive front has quite a trio inStephon Tuitt,Cameron HeywardandT.J. Watt, who are all playing at aPro Bowllevel. If they don’t get caught up in all of Baltimore’s misdirection, they represent Pittsburgh’s best chance to take over the game and disrupt theRavens‘ attack.

3)TheSteelerscoached around second-year quarterbackMason Rudolphin Week 4, not requiring many difficult throws. Baltimore mastered that approach last season, but nowLamar Jacksonis an improved passer supported by a far more dynamic running game, which he leads. If theSteelerslose this game, they will be playing catch-up all year.

Arizona Cardinals24,Cincinnati Bengals20

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati)

1)I feel bad for newBengalscoach Zac Taylor. He lost two offensive line starters to retirement and first-round left tackleJonah Williamsto injury before the season started. Wide receiverJohn Rossis joining receiverA.J. Green on the sideline. Running backJoe Mixon‘s frustration leaps off the screen playing behind a group that can barely function.

2)Andy Daltonis understandably re-acquiring bad habits, playing down to his surroundings. Rookie QBRyan Finleymay get his shot eventually, but it’s hard to imagine that happening beforeThanksgiving.

3)Called runs forKyler Murrayare already one of the most thrilling plays in football. His footwork and footspeed are just different.Cardinalsrunning backDavid Johnsonlooks closer to his 2016 form each week and coach Kliff Kingsbury has found more success scheming for the running game, so look for that to be highlighted this week with wideoutChristian Kirkexpectedto be out.

Houston Texans27,Atlanta Falcons24

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | NRG Stadium (Houston)

1)TheTexanshave scored 23 points combined in two home games, partly becauseDeshaun Watsonremains a streaky passer. The pass protection gains theTexansmadein Week 3, however, carried over intoWeek 4. That promises better days ahead, especially against aFalconspass rush that hasn’t traveled well this year.

2)In a league awash in substitutions, theTexansplay eight defenders at least 88 percent of the team’s snaps.J.J. WattandWhitney Mercilus, both over 94 percent, are earning their money. That’s the sign of a top-heavy defense that could ill afford injuries.

3)After a week in whichFalconscoach Dan Quinnunwittingly created a meme, theFalconsreturn to the scene ofthe organization’s toughest night. It’s going to feel awfully late early in the season if theFalconscan’t find a way to win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers31,New Orleans Saints28

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)

1)Jameis Winstonplays like amad bomberout of the 1970s when he gets protection, which has been rare in his career. It’s happened the last two weeks, and suddenly his top two wideouts (Chris Godwinand Mike Evans) are on pace for over 1,450 yards each.

2)The Bucs’ defense is impossible to run against (allowing 2.9 yards per carry), so canTeddy Bridgewaterthrow enough to win? TheSaints‘ lack of receiver depth is glaring, with Bridgewater completing one pass (a screen) that gained over 10 yards and wasn’t toMichael Thomas. Teddy doesn’t display the same feel for the position that he had in Minnesota. In a matchup where rushing yards will be tough to come by for both teams, I trust Jameis (gulp) more.

3)The Bucs are seventhin Football Outsiders’ overall team efficiency, while theSaintsare 21st. TheSaintshaven’t gained 300 yards of total offense since Week 1. This wouldn’t be that big an upset.

LOCK OF THE WEEK:Minnesota Vikings30,New York Giants20

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)

1)Daniel Jones‘ playing style figures to give both teams a chance. He could have had four first-half interceptionslast weekand can be reckless as a runner. But there’s no denying he makes very quick decisions and is excellent evading the pass rush. Minnesota is better equipped to take advantage of his mistakes.

2)DespiteDalvin Cook‘s numbers, theVikingsaren’t opening holes in the running game and theGiants‘ big bodies up front mark the strength of their defense. There should be better matchups with whoever lines up opposite rookie cornerbackDeandre Baker, slot cornerGrant Haleyand the players left standing among the banged-upGiants‘ linebackers. RookieRyan Connelly‘s torn ACL is a sneaky-big loss for the G-Men.

3)These are the games in whichKirk Cousinsshines, at 1 p.m. ET against an undermanned defense. There should be wide-open receivers and very little pass rush to bother him.

Chicago Bears20,Oakland Raiders6

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

1)TheBearsare 28th in scoring and second in points allowed, a trend that shouldn’t change much withChase Danielunder center. London audiences revel in low-scoring slugfests and this one is setting up that way, especially with rain in the forecast.

2)Jon Gruden is on fire with his game-opening scripts and rookieJosh Jacobsbreaks tackles, but theRaidersstruggle to move the ball otherwise.Derek Carrstill tends to throw short at the hint of pressure, a recipe for copious three-and-outs against theBears.

3)TheRaiderscould desperately use a No. 1 receiver and a premier pass rusher, the very assets they traded away a year ago.Tyrell Williamsis a fine No. 2 wideout forced up a spot. Tight endDarren Walleris one of the best stories of 2019. But throwing toHunter Renfrowhas been a drag (18 targets for 89 yards) and no one else on the team has over 60 yards. The passing game is thinner than Gruden’s patience.

Philadelphia Eagles30,New York Jets11

1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)

1)If theEaglesdon’t hit the quarterback Sunday, it’s time to worry about the defensive line. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz doesn’t trust his shaky secondary, so he barely blitzes, but evenFletcher CoxandBrandon Grahamare struggling to get home. 2017 first-rounderDerek Barnetthasn’t stepped up and injuries have sapped the group’s depth.

2)It’s ironic that an analytics-minded team like theEaglesturned their season around because they ran well and stopped the runin Green Bay. Running backsMiles SandersandJordan Howardcan stop GM Howie Roseman from trading for help if they keep playing well. Look for a more pass-happy approach this week with matchup advantages against theJets‘ secondary.

3)Sam Darnold‘s statusis a mystery, but what about the otherJetsfirst-rounders off to slow starts?Leonard Williamshas not played well in Gregg Williams’ scheme and No. 3 overall pickQuinnen Williamsis expected to return after missing two games for a squadsurprisingly ranked No. 12in defensive efficiency.

Los Angeles Chargers30,Denver Broncos24

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | ROKiT Field at Dignity Health Sports Park (Carson, Calif.)

1)These teams are imbalanced, but not in the ways you think. TheChargersrankfifth in offensive DVOA, but Gus Bradley’s defense is 28th and just lost pass rusherMelvin Ingramto injury. The much-malignedBroncosoffense checks in at a respectable 12th, but Vic Fangio’s defense sunk to 27th and nowlost pass rusher Bradley Chubb for the season.

2)Melvin Gordonshould be worked into the mix for aChargersoffense that did just fine without him.Austin Ekeler— fifth in the NFL in yards from scrimmage — deserves an equal share of the workload.

3)A high quantity of passes to running backs is one reason whyPhilip Rivershas faced the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. That shouldn’t change Sunday, so taking Rivers overJoe Flaccoin a shootout isn’t a hard decision.

Dallas Cowboys27,Green Bay Packers19

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) | AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)

1)Davante Adamsmay be the most valuablePackersplayer without a State Farm commercial and his status is in question after missing practice Wednesday with the toe injury he suffered last week.Jamaal Williams‘ concussion could also limit an erratic running game. The bestPackersplay remainsAaron Rodgersmaking one up on the fly. AsCowboysfans know well, that could still be enough.

2)The creeping insistence of theCowboysto run on early downs — diminishing play-action throws — is a worrisome trend. Kellen Moore will be tempted to keep feedingEzekiel Elliottagainst aPackersdefense that is much better against the pass than the run. Even with left tackleTyron Smithunlikely to play this week, I still want to see Moore have faith that Dak can carry the team in a tough matchup. Continually putting him in third-and-longs helps no one.

3)WithDeMarcus Lawrencenot quite all the way back from offseason shoulder surgery,Robert Quinn‘s ferocious start changes theCowboysdefense. Quinn has often looked good in September in recent years, only to have his back flare up. His health — and defensive tackleMaliek Collins‘ emergence — makes this defense so dangerous.

Kansas City Chiefs33,Indianapolis Colts20

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) | Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)

1)TheColts‘ defense is a solid group of pros who hover around 0 in PFF PRO’s scoring system. They are well-coached, but lack firepower. Even if linebackerDarius Leonardreturns this week, that’s not going to be good enough to slow down thisChiefsoffense.

2)Coach Frank Reich could be tempted to err on the side of caution with his injured players, considering the looming Week 6 bye. WideoutParris Campbell, running backMarlon Mackand safetyClayton Geathersall look iffy, in addition toT.Y. Hilton.

3)TheChiefshad a great September, but theFrank Clarktrade is not working out thus far. He has eight total QB disruptions (sacks, hits and hurries), which is six fewer than teammateEmmanuel Ogbahin 105 more snaps. ThisChiefsdefense needs Clark to turn it around to get to the next level.

MONDAY, OCT. 7

TOUGHEST GAME TO PICK:San Francisco 49ers20,Cleveland Browns19

1)Não estou convencido dosMarrons‘ ofensa é corrigida. Suas grandes jogadas na semana passada vieram de missões fracassadas contra uma defesa desigual. Cleveland é talentoso o suficiente para montar 500 jardas em qualquer semana, impulsionado por jogadas individuais superlativas, mas o49ers a>’defense (segundo em DVOA) marca oTeste mais difícil dos marrons.

2)A linha ofensiva daBrownsocupa a quinta posição best intaxa de ganho de aprovação de bloco, de acordo com a ESPN. Eles estão acima da média na proteção de passe, de acordo com a PFF.A punição de Baker Mayfieldgeralmente foi autoinfligida, mas ele fez um trabalho melhor vendo o campo e tomando decisões rápidasna semana 4.

3)Mayfield eJimmy Garoppolosofreram começos igualmente erráticos para a Estação. Contra adefesa do oitavo lugar no Cleveland, o passador de Niners também está definido para enfrentar seu maior desafio ainda. A frente doBrowns‘está recebendo uma interrupção consistente deOlivier Vernone reprodução de linebackerJoe SchobertProcure por defesa para governar o jogo mais fascinante da noite de segunda-feira do ano até agora.

JOGO DE QUINTA-FEIRA

Los Angeles Rams24,Seattle Seahawks23

1)A linhaRamsé um problema . Los Angeles ocupa a 31ª posição no ranking de bloqueio de passes do Pro Football Focus e a última no bloqueio de corridas. Não são apenas os novos iniciantes dosRams; abordaAndrew Whitworthe (especialmente)Rob Havensteinregrediu. Eles estão arruinando o momento da ofensa final.

2)A corrida deSeahawksé apontada para cima com Ziggy Ansah melhorando lentamente,Jadeveon Clowneyjogando melhor a cada semana,Quinton Jeffersontendo uma boa temporada eMychal Kendricksbrilhando como o primoBruce Irvin. Não é de admirar que Pete Carroll pense que este grupoestá apenas começando.

3)Este é o maior jogo da semana 5.A corrida NFC West será abertaou veremos mais do mesmo no topo da divisão? Inclino-meRamsaqui porque Sean McVay está 2-0 em Seattle e oRams‘foi rastreadacontra Tampaapesar deJared Goffé um tanto confuso rotatividade. Ele está fazendo grandes arremessos a cada semana, apesar das narrativas.

Siga Gregg Rosenthal no Twitter@greggrosenthal.

Fonte

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